The market was soft in 2023, and it's soft in 2024 thus far. It's not just horses, but the entire economy.
There's an undercurrent in social media related to underlying economic conditions as it relates to Gypsy Horses (inclusive of Gypsy Vanner Horses, Gypsy Horses, Gypsy Cobs, Gypsy Crosses, etc.) which has several faces and factions. This serves to illustrate the many different viewpoints of a lot of different people with different perspectives, histories, and reasons to be involved with Gypsy Horses.
I'm not going to talk about the horse enthusiast that has one to several horses to support their hobby purely for the sake of their enjoyment of having horses. I'm not going to talk about the show homes who only have horses to trailer them around to show them for their own enjoyment of the horses and being around other people who have mutual love for horses. For the support of these sorts of hobbies, it is purely a cost basis for their level of enjoyment that they get from having horses in their life.
There is a fuzzy boundary between the above and the sorts of operations that I'm discussing, though. Once you do anything directly, and with intent, with your horses to help offset your ongoing costs for your horses, though, that is who I'm going to discuss. Whether that's buying and selling horses or producing offspring for future potential sale or you own and board horses or you own and train horses or you have a financial benefit of any sort from being associated with the equine industry and also owning horses, that boundary is crossed, and that's who I am discussing. Those individuals have a vested interest in the monetary valuation of their horses. That definition is squishy, though, since even some hobby enthusiasts care about the dollar value of their horses in the event that they need to sell them in an emergency situation or some other life-related situation (I really hate seeing when that happens).
I'm normally very thoughtful and deliberate (some would say obsessive) with anything that I make up my mind that I would like to do beyond the bare necessities required for survival in life. I'm not quite certain everyone puts as much time and thought into their endeavors, though. But...most people do not spend endless amounts of money on things that bring them no benefit nor joy, though.
For most, horses are anachronistic. They are a throwback to a prior era when we did not have motorized vehicles. The days are long gone where horses race against steam engine locomotives or motorized vehicles to prove which one is superior. For almost all purposes, horses no longer hold the upper hand. Horses are now, at best, a recreational pursuit or a memorial to historical yesteryears. For many, horses are sacredly held in esteem as objects of human affection. We're in a kinder, more humane age with human relationships with our equine partners (notwithstanding obvious deviations such as Amish and Mennonite communities and some Western ranches where horses can still get in and out of places that even motorcycles have a hard time navigating or maintaining sufficient fuel stores for the long journey).
Back to my main point for this blog post, though. Horse sales are slow. Post-COVID, less people find themselves working from home and having time and energy to keep up with properly maintaining pet horses. The inflationary economy makes it increasingly harder to afford to pay for all of the things you need to pay for in order to maintain horses properly. Higher interest rates make access to capital to fund purchases of horses much harder to come by.
I hear lots of folks talk about how this is an election year, and that horse sales always slow down in election years due to the fact that money supply freezes up just a bit due to uncertainty.
There's something different this time, though.
The last time that economic conditions were this poor during an election year was 2008. As of 2024, there are an estimated 20,000 Gypsy Horses in the US. In 2008, there were likely less than 4,000 Gypsy Horses in the US. Well over 1,000 Gypsy Horses are being foaled every year now.
The demand side pressures noted above due to lack of money, time, and energy by consumers combined with massive oversupply pressures is a bit of a recipe for disaster in this mostly "recreational" industry that no politician can solve overnight no matter who is in charge in January. Maybe it will get better, but I don't think that 2025 is likely to be a major upward swing, either (not unless we have a stock market crash, interest rates drop massively, massive income tax reductions go into effect, and the government starts issuing stimulus checks again, but that's a lot to wish for, and even then, supply side pressures remain with the amount of these horses in the US now).
That brings us back around to some of the other things I've said above, and it goes into the question of "Why are you involved with equine activities?" I see several spectrums here. How much of this has to do with your love of the horses themselves? How much of this has to do with your desire for financial gain? How much of this has to do with other non-tangibles like friendships or fame or competitive nature? I don't see where any of these things are mutually exclusive of one another. Layered on top of this, though, is the question of how much time, energy, and money you are willing to offer up for what you wish to get out of your equine activities. Even more fundamental, though, is "How much are you capable of giving?" All of the answers to those questions are slightly different for everyone, and that doesn't make any one person's answers more right or wrong; it's just whatever is right for the person answering the questions.
There are a lot of people out there that'll line up to tell you that your answers are wrong, though, just because their answers to those questions are different than yours. Some folks show their insecurities due to uncertainties when they take that opportunity to attack you or your operation just because you see things just a bit differently. That's certainly not very nice. I've seen some folks retreat from the industry due to poor treatment at the hands of others. Remaining completely above reproach by so many different standards is a really hard thing to do.
If I had to answer those questions for myself, I'm a horse breeder that loves horses and loves raising up little foals to be the best horses they can be with the heads that God has blessed each of them with. I'm not in it for ribbons, prizes, recognition, friendships (I'm pretty much a horse hermit), and I'm not in it for the money. I love finding the "right" situation for each horse and then I really like to see it when things work out very well between new owners and their new horse family members. As much as I wish I could just give away everyone's new, best friend to them, though, I need to try to control my costs so that I can keep doing this for as long as I can. I need to do what I need to in order to continue to perpetually do what I love doing as long as there are happy endings for my clients and for the foals that I produce. If there was no chance for future happy endings for my foals, I would have to halt what it is that I'm doing and just enjoy the horses that I do have for the rest of my and their lives.
That brings me to current and to future decisions. We all have to make those decisions, whether they're made deliberately or "off the cuff."
There is very little demand for horses right now. I've done some things to test the waters, and I know that there is almost no demand, at least in my geographic area.
Some folks will say that the current state from their viewpoint is due to differences between quality stock and non-quality stock. There are near con-artists in this field that will try to sell you on the idea that their stock is so much better than the stock that everyone else has (and then overprice their offerings...a fool and their money). There are definitely quality differences in these horses at the individual level, but those differences are not because of grooming, show records, and photo shoots. I look at some of the horses by those claiming that they have superior stock and most of their horses have conformation and pedigrees that are near comparable to some folks that undersell equivalent horses. The one value-add, in my opinion, though, is time and money spent on training. Time is money, money is time, and spending both on a horse will increase its value.
So, the decisions that can be made in light of the current state is to either partially or fully fold the operation, hold steady, or increase your operation. The current state of denial by many people have them holding steady or just continuing their operation as normal. I have seen a slow steady move of people out of the industry, though. I've also seen a number of people reducing down to the level where their time, effort, and money to care for their horses puts them back at the level of a hobby enthusiast (with ongoing set costs that they are willing to pay just to have horses in their lives). I fear there will soon be a lot of people that soon will not be able to continue to operate at the level that they are at right now (which will then make that supply issue with lots of horses available even worse). I fear that there could be a lot of tragic stories for horses just around the corner.
I'm taking the option to increase my operation, and not for the reason that I believe it's in my best financial interests. I'm doing it because I love what I do, and I know that my time, effort, money, and infrastructure can handle my plan even if another horse never leaves my farm. I would like to soften up my operating expenses, but I'm willing to have, care for, and pay for good care for about 40 horses indefinitely. Next year, I might be forced into a "hold steady" approach, though, because 40 would be my highwater mark. None leaving would mean not making any new ones (I'll apologize to my stallions later if that happens).
In the meantime, though, I know what my costs are, and I'm not going to sell a horse at a loss, but I don't mind if I break even if the situation for the horse and the new owner is right, because that's what it's all about for me...love of raising foals and sharing the love of these horses with others.
Comments